Project 2045: how far along are we?

0 at the center, 100 at the edge. 100 is the 2045 end state. Every dot is one accepted metric, grouped by spoke. A series scores only when it has a written baseline and a 2045 target in targets.json, and only checked readings count. The score is how far the latest checked reading has moved from the baseline toward the target. A spoke is the median of its scored series, shown once those series hold 5 checked points.

Scoring version 2026-10-27.1 · Data from 2026-10-25 · Data version 18037b0+uncommitted+untracked:5969b69b · 379 accepted metrics · 1,130 data points on this chart · 41 series scored · 19 spokes: 14 with a score, 2 building, 3 need targets. Grey dots are not scored yet; hover one to see why. Only spokes with a score are on the shape.

1● AI 44.5 2 of 45 scored
2● Robots 0 5 of 15 scored
3● Manufacturing 22.9 1 of 6 scored
4● Drones & transport 20.1 2 of 10 scored
5● Power & compute 4.3 4 of 81 scored
6● Physics & materials 29.4 2 of 8 scored
7● Longevity & health 29.8 6 of 76 scored
8● Space 6.1 2 of 17 scored
9● Jobs needs targets 0 of 41 scored
10● Education 58 4 of 12 scored
11● Math 93.7 3 of 5 scored
12● Households 60.8 1 of 5 scored
13● Main Street 24.3 3 of 7 scored
14● Economy & productivity 40.5 1 of 3 scored
15● Money & markets needs targets 0 of 15 scored
16● Policy & safety building (1 checked) 0 of 4 scored
17● Defense & security needs targets 0 of 3 scored
18● Food & agriculture 55.9 5 of 10 scored
19● Other building (1 checked) 0 of 16 scored

By track

Track	Series tracked	Scored	Checked points	Shows
AI	45	2	8	44.5
Robots	15	5	6	0
Manufacturing	6	1	24	22.9
Drones & transport	10	2	26	20.1
Power & compute	81	4	27	4.3
Physics & materials	8	2	5	29.4
Longevity & health	76	6	17	29.8
Space	17	2	9	6.1
Jobs	41	0	25	needs targets
Education	12	4	5	58
Math	5	3	23	93.7
Households	5	1	9	60.8
Main Street	7	3	48	24.3
Economy & productivity	3	1	9	40.5
Money & markets	15	0	15	needs targets
Policy & safety	4	0	1	building (1 checked)
Defense & security	3	0	8	needs targets
Food & agriculture	10	5	18	55.9
Other	16	0	1	building (1 checked)

Every scored series

Track	Series	Now	Baseline to 2045 target	Score
AI	Organizations using AI	89% (2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	89
AI	Data centre and AI electricity demand, world	400 TWh (Dec 31, 2025)	400 to 2700 (2040)	0
Robots	Humanoid robots in active use worldwide (installed base)	21,000 (Dec 31, 2025)	21000 to 8.3e+07 (2040)	0
Robots	Humanoid robots installed worldwide per year	16,000 (Dec 31, 2025)	16000 to 2.6e+07 (2040)	0
Robots	Humanoid robots shipped worldwide per year (Berg Insight)	16,000 (Dec 31, 2025)	16000 to 2.6e+07 (2040)	0
Robots	Humanoid robots shipped worldwide per year (IDC)	18,000 (Dec 31, 2025)	18000 to 2.6e+07 (2040)	0
Robots	Humanoid robots shipped worldwide per year (Omdia)	13,000 (Dec 31, 2025)	2300 to 2.6e+07 (2040)	0
Manufacturing	Manufacturers using AI	22.9% (Oct 18, 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	22.9
Drones & transport	Electric share of new car sales, world	21% (Dec 31, 2024)	0.17 to 70 (2040)	29.8
Drones & transport	Electric share of the car fleet, world	4.2% (Dec 31, 2024)	0.024 to 40 (2040)	10.4
Power & compute	Renewables share of electricity generation, world	33.76% (Dec 31, 2025)	20.9774 to 70 (2050)	26.1
Power & compute	Solar share of global electricity	8.7% (Dec 31, 2025)	0 to 100 (2045)	8.7
Power & compute	AI compute capacity target	30 GW (Dec 31, 2025)	30 to 3000 (2045 · Mark's call)	0
Power & compute	Data centre share of global electricity use	1.2% (Dec 31, 2025)	1.2 to 5 (2040)	0
Physics & materials	Lithium-ion battery pack price	$108 /kWh (2025)	151 to 70 (2050)	53.1
Physics & materials	CritPt research-physics benchmark best AI score	5.7% (Nov 21, 2025)	0 to 100 (2045)	5.7
Longevity & health	Dentists using an intraoral scanner (ADA ACE Panel)	53% (Feb 2021)	0 to 100 (2045)	53
Longevity & health	Share of US dentists using AI in practice	43.3% (Jul 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	43.3
Longevity & health	Life expectancy at birth, world	73.17 years (Dec 31, 2023)	70.824 to 77.2 (2050)	36.8
Longevity & health	Share of US dentists using AI for imaging and diagnostics	22.8% (Jul 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	22.8
Longevity & health	Dentists using AI for insurance verification	13.6% (Jul 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	13.6
Longevity & health	Dentists using AI for front-desk check-in	10.1% (Jul 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	10.1
Space	Global space economy revenue	429 billion US$ (Dec 31, 2025)	3.5e+11 to 1e+12 (2040)	12.2
Space	Launch cost per kg to orbit	$3,868 /kg (Dec 31, 2025)	3868 to 273 (2040)	0
Education	UK undergraduates using generative AI	95% (Dec 31, 2025)	0 to 100 (2045)	95
Education	US teachers who have used AI for work	62% (May 5, 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	62
Education	US teens using AI chatbots for schoolwork	54% (Feb 24, 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	54
Education	US teachers using AI at least weekly	32% (Jun 25, 2025)	0 to 100 (2045)	32
Math	FrontierMath Tier 4 best AI score	100% (Sep 29, 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	100
Math	FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 best AI score	93.7% (Sep 3, 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	93.7
Math	FrontierMath Erdős (open problems) best AI score	2.9% (Sep 3, 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	2.9
Households	Adults using generative AI	60.81% (Aug 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	60.8
Main Street	Small employer firms using AI	46% (2025)	0 to 100 (2045)	46
Main Street	Small firms (1-4 employees) using AI	24.3% (Oct 18, 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	24.3
Main Street	Businesses using AI to make goods or services (last two weeks)	23.8% (Oct 4, 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	23.8
Economy & productivity	Workers using generative AI at work	40.55% (Aug 2026)	0 to 100 (2045)	40.5
Food & agriculture	Auto-steer and guidance systems on planted acres	64.5% (2019)	0 to 100 (2045)	64.5
Food & agriculture	Auto-steer and guidance systems on planted acres	58.4% (2016)	0 to 100 (2045)	58.4
Food & agriculture	Auto-steer and guidance systems on planted acres	55.9% (2017)	0 to 100 (2045)	55.9
Food & agriculture	Auto-steer and guidance systems on planted acres	54.5% (2018)	0 to 100 (2045)	54.5
Food & agriculture	Meat production, world	366.7 million tonnes (Dec 31, 2023)	2.92323e+08 to 4.55e+08 (2050)	45.7

Needs target (337 series)

Series	Spoke	Checked points
AI agents per person	AI	0
AI agents working in parallel on one task	AI	0
AI capability doubling time	AI	0
AI coding output/productivity vs human	AI	0
AI research output per human-researcher day	AI	0
AI research task speedup vs human (benchmark)	AI	0
AI time to design a CAD model from one prompt	AI	0
AI token spend per employee	AI	0
AI total addressable market (Anthropic estimate)	AI	0
Bot share of global web requests	AI	0
Breakthroughs remaining to AGI (Hassabis)	AI	0
CPU design time, concept to tape-out	AI	0
Capability of cheaper model relative to frontier	AI	0
Companies expecting AI to increase staffing and wages	AI	0
Companies expecting AI to reduce staffing and wages	AI	0
Companies run autonomously by an AI platform	AI	0
Companies studied in enterprise AI playbook (successful deployments)	AI	0
Context window	AI	0
Distinct emotional states identified in Claude	AI	0
Document length the model handles	AI	0
Estimated gross margin of Chinese model API providers	AI	0
Experiments run by an automated AI-researcher agent	AI	0
Forecast year of the technological singularity	AI	0
Frontier model releases since mid-April 2026	AI	0
Global generative AI adoption	AI	0
Historical doubling time of the world economy	AI	0
Long-context reasoning gain vs prior model	AI	0
Number of AI agents online	AI	0
Reported AI model training run cost	AI	0
Share of AI research ideas that work	AI	0
Share of AI-using companies seeing bottom-line improvement	AI	0
Share of US job growth from small and mid-size companies	AI	0
Share of code written by AI	AI	0
Share of companies barely using AI	AI	0
Share of companies citing technology as main AI roadblock	AI	0
Share of corporate AI deployments working	AI	0
Share of corporate AI projects failing	AI	0
Small businesses not using AI	AI	0
Superintelligence arrival year	AI	0
Time for a sovereign model to catch up to frontier	AI	0
Year AI passed the Turing test	AI	0
Years until AGI arrives (Anthropic CSO claim)	AI	0
Years until human-machine merger (wearables/BCI)	AI	0
Humanoid robots shipped per year	Robots	1
Robots sold worldwide	Robots	1
Humanoid robots shipped per year	Robots	0
Humanoid robots shipped per year	Robots	0
Humanoid robots shipped per year	Robots	0
Humanoid robots shipped per year	Robots	0
Humanoid robots shipped per year	Robots	0
Humanoid robots shipped worldwide, half-year (analyst estimates)	Robots	0
Share of humanoid robot units from China	Robots	0
Share of industrial robots deployed in China	Robots	0
Factory capacity in use	Manufacturing	6
US robot density in manufacturing	Manufacturing	6
Global robot density in factories	Manufacturing	4
US manufacturing jobs announced via reshoring and FDI	Manufacturing	1
US manufacturing output, monthly change	Manufacturing	1
Robotaxi rides per week	Drones & transport	2
Robotaxi rides per week	Drones & transport	1
Robotaxi rides, all time	Drones & transport	1
Robotaxis on the road	Drones & transport	0
Robotaxis on the road	Drones & transport	0
Waymo cities in operation	Drones & transport	0
Waymo cumulative autonomous miles	Drones & transport	0
Waymo fleet size	Drones & transport	0
Global installed renewable capacity	Power & compute	8
Installed solar capacity (by country)	Power & compute	8
Solar electricity cost	Power & compute	8
AI data center power capacity / demand	Power & compute	7
Solar panel cost per watt	Power & compute	7
Power outage time per customer, US	Power & compute	6
Solar share of national electricity	Power & compute	6
Small-scale (rooftop and other behind-the-meter) solar capacity, US	Power & compute	5
Global semiconductor sales growth	Power & compute	4
Fusion startup total funding raised	Power & compute	3
Number of fusion startups	Power & compute	3
Lithium-ion battery cost	Power & compute	2
Global AI compute production (power-equivalent)	Power & compute	1
Nuclear share of national electricity	Power & compute	1
AI capex per company per year	Power & compute	0
AI compute deployed in space per year	Power & compute	0
AI data center spend as % of GDP	Power & compute	0
AI infrastructure buildout capex (multi-year totals)	Power & compute	0
AI lab compute / infrastructure commitments	Power & compute	0
AI memory demand growth rate	Power & compute	0
ASML lithography machines per year	Power & compute	0
Accelerators used to train a frontier model	Power & compute	0
Annual decline in AI compute cost	Power & compute	0
Arrival of post-fusion energy sources	Power & compute	0
Battery energy density gain per year	Power & compute	0
Battery storage in solar plus battery project	Power & compute	0
Big Tech / global AI capex per year	Power & compute	0
Capex equivalent of the power gap	Power & compute	0
Capital raised to build fabs	Power & compute	0
China energy cost advantage vs US parts	Power & compute	0
China new electric generation vs US (per year)	Power & compute	0
Chip spend per gigawatt of data center	Power & compute	0
Clean energy market size	Power & compute	0
Cost of a fusion reactor project (ITER-style tokamak)	Power & compute	0
Cost of a single flagship AI data center	Power & compute	0
DRAM price change (1 yr)	Power & compute	0
Data center buildout contribution to US GDP growth	Power & compute	0
Data centers hosted (region)	Power & compute	0
Doubling time of compute in largest AI data center	Power & compute	0
GPUs in largest AI training clusters	Power & compute	0
GPUs produced per year	Power & compute	0
Gas turbine order backlog	Power & compute	0
Generation interconnection wait time	Power & compute	0
Gigawatt-scale solar plants built worldwide	Power & compute	0
Global AI compute growth rate	Power & compute	0
Global EV sales per year	Power & compute	0
Global memory production growth per year	Power & compute	0
Large reactors covered by US government loan guarantees	Power & compute	0
Largest grid battery project	Power & compute	0
Memory share of AI infrastructure spend	Power & compute	0
New nuclear reactors built (US vs China)	Power & compute	0
Nuclear plant capital cost per watt	Power & compute	0
Nuclear reactor electrical capacity	Power & compute	0
Nuclear startup funding round	Power & compute	0
Ocean data center units deployed	Power & compute	0
Operating nuclear power plants in country	Power & compute	0
Performance gain from etching model weights into silicon	Power & compute	0
Power transformer lead time	Power & compute	0
Regulatory cost to get a nuclear reactor running	Power & compute	0
Renewables growth over a decade	Power & compute	0
Renewables share of global power capacity	Power & compute	0
Share of AI compute used for inference	Power & compute	0
Share of Americans strongly opposing a local data center	Power & compute	0
Share of China's auto fleet that is electrified	Power & compute	0
Share of China's oil that is imported	Power & compute	0
Share of US solar panels from China	Power & compute	0
Share of compute located in space	Power & compute	0
Share of planned US AI data center capacity delayed	Power & compute	0
Share of world memory chips made in the US	Power & compute	0
Solar cell efficiency (incl. lab records)	Power & compute	0
Solar energy hitting Earth vs annual human energy use	Power & compute	0
Terafab investment	Power & compute	0
Typical new AI data center size	Power & compute	0
US grid average demand	Power & compute	0
Years for Chinese AI chips to catch up to US	Power & compute	0
Years of AI compute already reserved	Power & compute	0
Years until small modular reactors deploy	Power & compute	0
AI-predicted stable crystals	Physics & materials	1
Best two-qubit gate fidelity (Quantinuum Helios)	Physics & materials	1
GNoME predictions made in a lab	Physics & materials	1
Known stable crystals (total)	Physics & materials	1
Most logical qubits demonstrated (self-reported)	Physics & materials	1
Physical qubits estimated to break RSA-2048	Physics & materials	0
Average life expectancy	Longevity & health	7
Dentists finding assistant hiring very or extremely challenging	Longevity & health	4
Dentists finding hygienist hiring very or extremely challenging	Longevity & health	4
Yomi implants placed (cumulative)	Longevity & health	2
AI-assisted caries detection sensitivity (ADEPT)	Longevity & health	1
AI-assisted caries detection sensitivity (Mertens cluster trial)	Longevity & health	1
ATMP feasibility for dental pulp regeneration (NCT02842515) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
Acellular MSC-derived system for pulp regeneration (NCT05599087) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
Allogeneic DPSC for periodontitis (NCT07574840) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
DPSC periodontal regeneration trial (NCT03386877) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
Dentists planning AI for insurance verification	Longevity & health	1
Encapsulated MSC pulp regeneration (NCT03102879) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
Human DPSC for chronic periodontitis (NCT05924373) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
Human DPSC injection with periodontal therapy (NCT04983225) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
Neocis FDA clearances to date	Longevity & health	1
Overjet FDA clearances to date	Longevity & health	1
Robot crown prep accuracy (RMS deviation)	Longevity & health	1
Robot crown prep surface within 100 micrometres of plan	Longevity & health	1
Robot implant angular accuracy (Remebot)	Longevity & health	1
Robot-prepped crowns cemented same visit	Longevity & health	1
SHED polymerisation pulp regeneration (NCT05728346) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
SHED revitalization of immature teeth (NCT01814436) enrollment	Longevity & health	1
Share of US dentists planning AI adoption	Longevity & health	1
Typical crown chair time (company baseline)	Longevity & health	1
Unaided caries detection sensitivity (ADEPT)	Longevity & health	1
Unaided caries detection sensitivity (Mertens cluster trial)	Longevity & health	1
Yomi full-arch cases (cumulative)	Longevity & health	1
Yomi osteotomies (cumulative)	Longevity & health	1
AI-discovered drugs in pipeline	Longevity & health	0
Active mRNA cancer vaccine trials	Longevity & health	0
Age of peak human health	Longevity & health	0
AlphaFold efficiency vs PhD-student structure determination	Longevity & health	0
Animal cloning efficiency	Longevity & health	0
Average healthspan	Longevity & health	0
Biological age reversal from AI-designed drug	Longevity & health	0
Brain age improvement from healthy living program	Longevity & health	0
Companies working on partial epigenetic reprogramming	Longevity & health	0
Compounds in Phase 3 per biotech after 2-3 years	Longevity & health	0
Cost to discover and develop a new drug (incl. failures)	Longevity & health	0
Day after conception when epigenetic clock resets	Longevity & health	0
Deaths per year from aging	Longevity & health	0
FDA pivotal clinical trial phases required	Longevity & health	0
FDA-approved drugs (vs ~18,000 recognized diseases)	Longevity & health	0
Forecast year AI cures (most) disease	Longevity & health	0
Full ex-utero mammal birth (artificial womb)	Longevity & health	0
Furthest clinical phase reached by an AI-designed drug	Longevity & health	0
Genes in the first minimal reproducing cell	Longevity & health	0
Global deaths per day	Longevity & health	0
Human lifespan multiple vs today	Longevity & health	0
Life expectancy gain per year	Longevity & health	0
Life extension from a single longevity drug	Longevity & health	0
Longevity / proactive health market size	Longevity & health	0
Longevity escape velocity arrival	Longevity & health	0
Longevity escape velocity share reached via GLP-1 therapy	Longevity & health	0
Longevity startup venture funding per year	Longevity & health	0
Personalized mRNA vaccine manufacturing and shipping time	Longevity & health	0
Phase 1 success rate of AI-discovered drugs	Longevity & health	0
Phase 2 success rate of AI-discovered drugs	Longevity & health	0
Portable USB DNA sequencer price	Longevity & health	0
Private funding raised for a science lab	Longevity & health	0
Production time cut by AI autonomous lab	Longevity & health	0
Prompt-designed animals (engineer phenotypes, synthesize, grow ex utero)	Longevity & health	0
Protein structures predicted by AI	Longevity & health	0
Time to determine a single protein structure	Longevity & health	0
Time to develop a new drug	Longevity & health	0
Time to reprogram a cell into an iPSC	Longevity & health	0
US heart disease deaths per year	Longevity & health	0
Year human lifespan doubles (forecast)	Longevity & health	0
Years in poor health at end of life	Longevity & health	0
Years until AI cures cancer / all disease	Longevity & health	0
Starlink satellites in orbit	Space	1
Active satellites in orbit (all operators)	Space	0
Amazon Leo (Kuiper) satellites approved	Space	0
Annual growth of mass to orbit	Space	0
Cost per launch	Space	0
Exoplanets discovered	Space	0
New Glenn cumulative launches	Space	0
Probability NASA finds microbial life on Mars	Space	0
Target year for next crewed Moon landing	Space	0
US space budget as % of GDP	Space	0
Year a nuclear reactor is placed in space	Space	0
Year first elements of a lunar base are built	Space	0
Year of a lunar mass driver	Space	0
Year of manufacturing on the Moon	Space	0
Years until crewed Mars landing	Space	0
Aerospace engineers, US jobs	Jobs	4
Bioengineers and biomedical engineers, US jobs	Jobs	4
Environmental science and protection technicians, including health, US jobs	Jobs	4
Genetic counselors, US jobs	Jobs	4
Industrial machinery mechanics, US jobs	Jobs	4
Substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors, US jobs	Jobs	4
Quantum job postings, monthly change	Jobs	1
Bots/agents vs humans on the internet	Jobs	0
Change in employment of US software developers aged 22-25 since 2024	Jobs	0
Global population aged 65+	Jobs	0
Labor share of income	Jobs	0
Open software engineering roles	Jobs	0
People online worldwide	Jobs	0
Road deaths per year	Jobs	0
Share of AI experts optimistic about AI	Jobs	0
Share of Americans who say college is important	Jobs	0
Share of US services revenue requiring physical action	Jobs	0
Share of humanity in extreme poverty	Jobs	0
Share of office tasks automated per effort	Jobs	0
Share of teens seeking emotional support from AI	Jobs	0
Share of teens using AI chatbots	Jobs	0
Share of today's headcount a company needs with AI	Jobs	0
Share of workers who are solopreneurs	Jobs	0
Share of workforce in white-collar jobs	Jobs	0
Share rating AI literacy as a top skill for the next 10 years	Jobs	0
Share saying a college degree will become less important	Jobs	0
Small businesses adding jobs because of AI	Jobs	0
Small businesses losing jobs because of AI	Jobs	0
Total fertility rate	Jobs	0
US average wage growth since 2019	Jobs	0
US divorce rate	Jobs	0
US jobs added per year	Jobs	0
US jobs based on trucking	Jobs	0
US jobs created by AI (cumulative)	Jobs	0
US manufacturing share of the economy in the post-war era	Jobs	0
US office (white-collar) workers	Jobs	0
US overall unemployment rate	Jobs	0
US trust in federal government	Jobs	0
Universal basic income proposal (monthly)	Jobs	0
Worker productivity multiple from AI	Jobs	0
Years for majority of surviving companies to become AI-native	Jobs	0
Alpha School academic hours per day	Education	1
US 12th graders at or above Proficient in math (NAEP 2024)	Education	1
AI token spend per student per year (Alpha School)	Education	0
Learning gain from AI tutor vs active-learning class (Harvard RCT)	Education	0
US 4th graders at or above Proficient in math (NAEP 2024)	Education	0
US K-12 spending per student	Education	0
US private school market size	Education	0
US teens doing all or most schoolwork with chatbots	Education	0
FrontierMath open research problems solved by AI	Math	1
Average weekly hours, private-sector jobs	Households	17
Prime-age employment-to-population ratio	Households	17
Adults doing at least okay financially	Households	4
Food spending share of disposable income	Households	4
Businesses expecting to use AI in next six months	Main Street	23
New business applications, month-over-month change	Main Street	1
Small employer firms citing rising costs as top financial challenge	Main Street	1
US business applications, total, seasonally adjusted (monthly)	Main Street	1
Software investment's contribution to GDP growth	Economy & productivity	17
US total factor productivity growth, trailing four quarters	Economy & productivity	1
Bitcoin price	Money & markets	7
China GDP growth rate	Money & markets	4
US real GDP growth (annualized)	Money & markets	4
Brokerage accounts running AI trading agents	Money & markets	0
Combined market cap of US AI companies	Money & markets	0
Norway sovereign wealth fund size	Money & markets	0
Nvidia market cap	Money & markets	0
S&P 500 price / free cash flow	Money & markets	0
S&P 500 total market cap	Money & markets	0
SpaceX valuation	Money & markets	0
TSMC market cap	Money & markets	0
Total US public equity market cap	Money & markets	0
US GDP	Money & markets	0
US GDP per capita	Money & markets	0
World GDP	Money & markets	0
Share of public optimistic / positive about AI	Policy & safety	1
Open model cyber capability vs frontier models	Policy & safety	0
Share of Americans who fear AI	Policy & safety	0
Share of government services run on agentic AI	Policy & safety	0
World military spending, yearly	Defense & security	5
Defence spending, share of GDP (European Allies and Canada)	Defense & security	2
Pentagon Replicator program funding, yearly	Defense & security	1
FAO Meat Price Index, world	Food & agriculture	4
FAO Food Price Index, world	Food & agriculture	3
All food prices, 12-month change	Food & agriculture	1
Grocery food prices, 12-month change	Food & agriculture	1
Restaurant food prices, 12-month change	Food & agriculture	1
Vertical farming market size	Other	1
Cars on the planet	Other	0
Cell phones made per year	Other	0
Datacenter build time	Other	0
Datacenter power shortfall gw	Other	0
Global gdp growth	Other	0
Humanoid companies count	Other	0
Humanoid mass adoption year	Other	0
Humans return to moon	Other	0
Major institutions needing rebuild	Other	0
Model release cycle days	Other	0
NIH budget	Other	0
Recursive self improvement arrival	Other	0
Target monthly cost of basic needs for family of four	Other	0
Target year for abundance	Other	0
Years for horse-to-car transition to reach 50%	Other	0

Change over time

5 years (from 2021-10-25)

Spoke	Then	Now	Change	Note
AI	building (2 checked)	44.5	n/a	too few checked readings then
Robots	building (0 checked)	0	n/a	too few checked readings then
Manufacturing	building (4 checked)	22.9	n/a	too few checked readings then 1 reading has only a year or month as its date; it uses the middle of that period.
Drones & transport	4	20.1	+16.1	12 new checked readings
Power & compute	7.2	4.3	-2.9	62 new checked readings 7 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period. Scored: 2 of 81 at the start, 4 of 81 now.
Physics & materials	building (0 checked)	29.4	n/a	too few checked readings then
Longevity & health	35	29.8	-5.2	38 new checked readings 1 reading has only a year or month as its date; it uses the middle of that period. Scored: 2 of 76 at the start, 6 of 76 now.
Space	building (3 checked)	6.1	n/a	too few checked readings then
Jobs	building (0 checked)	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Education	building (0 checked)	58	n/a	too few checked readings then
Math	building (0 checked)	93.7	n/a	too few checked readings then
Households	needs targets	60.8	n/a	too few checked readings then
Main Street	building (0 checked)	24.3	n/a	too few checked readings then
Economy & productivity	building (0 checked)	40.5	n/a	too few checked readings then
Money & markets	building (0 checked)	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Policy & safety	building (0 checked)	building (1 checked)	n/a	too few to score or compare
Defense & security	building (2 checked)	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Food & agriculture	55.9	55.9	0	13 new checked readings
Other	building (0 checked)	building (1 checked)	n/a	too few to score or compare

1 year (from 2025-10-25)

Spoke	Then	Now	Change	Note
AI	39.4	44.5	+5.1	2 new checked readings
Robots	building (1 checked)	0	n/a	too few checked readings then 1 reading has only a year or month as its date; it uses the middle of that period.
Manufacturing	needs targets	22.9	n/a	too few checked readings then
Drones & transport	20.1	20.1	0	3 new checked readings
Power & compute	6.8	4.3	-2.5	10 new checked readings 6 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period.
Physics & materials	building (4 checked)	29.4	n/a	too few checked readings then 1 reading has only a year or month as its date; it uses the middle of that period.
Longevity & health	44.9	29.8	-15.1	16 new checked readings Scored: 2 of 76 at the start, 6 of 76 now.
Space	5	6.1	+1.1	3 new checked readings
Jobs	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Education	building (2 checked)	58	n/a	too few checked readings then
Math	38.9	93.7	+54.8	14 new checked readings Scored: 2 of 5 at the start, 3 of 5 now.
Households	54.6	60.8	+6.2	18 new checked readings 2 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period.
Main Street	building (1 checked)	24.3	n/a	too few checked readings then 1 reading has only a year or month as its date; it uses the middle of that period.
Economy & productivity	37.4	40.5	+3.1	7 new checked readings
Money & markets	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Policy & safety	building (1 checked)	building (1 checked)	n/a	too few to score or compare
Defense & security	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Food & agriculture	55.9	55.9	0	7 new checked readings
Other	building (0 checked)	building (1 checked)	n/a	too few to score or compare

6 months (from 2026-04-25)

Spoke	Then	Now	Change	Note
AI	39	44.5	+5.5	1 new checked reading 1 reading has only a year or month as its date; it uses the middle of that period.
Robots	0	0	flat
Manufacturing	16.9	22.9	+6	19 new checked readings 1 reading has only a year or month as its date; it uses the middle of that period.
Drones & transport	20.1	20.1	0	1 new checked reading
Power & compute	4.3	4.3	0	3 new checked readings
Physics & materials	29.4	29.4	0	1 new checked reading
Longevity & health	44.9	29.8	-15.1	13 new checked readings Scored: 2 of 76 at the start, 6 of 76 now.
Space	6.1	6.1	0	1 new checked reading
Jobs	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Education	building (4 checked)	58	n/a	too few checked readings then
Math	82.8	93.7	+10.9	8 new checked readings Scored: 2 of 5 at the start, 3 of 5 now.
Households	57.6	60.8	+3.2	12 new checked readings 2 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period.
Main Street	19.8	24.3	+4.5	39 new checked readings
Economy & productivity	42.8	40.5	-2.3	3 new checked readings
Money & markets	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Policy & safety	building (1 checked)	building (1 checked)	n/a	too few to score or compare
Defense & security	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Food & agriculture	55.9	55.9	0	5 new checked readings
Other	building (1 checked)	building (1 checked)	n/a	too few to score or compare

30 days (from 2026-09-25)

Spoke	Then	Now	Change	Note
AI	44.5	44.5	flat	1 reading has only a year or month as its date; it uses the middle of that period.
Robots	0	0	flat
Manufacturing	19.5	22.9	+3.4	2 new checked readings 2 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period.
Drones & transport	20.1	20.1	0	1 new checked reading
Power & compute	4.3	4.3	flat
Physics & materials	29.4	29.4	flat
Longevity & health	29.8	29.8	0	1 new checked reading 2 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period.
Space	6.1	6.1	0	1 new checked reading
Jobs	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Education	58	58	0	1 new checked reading
Math	93.7	93.7	0	2 new checked readings
Households	60.8	60.8	flat	2 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period.
Main Street	23.8	24.3	+0.5	4 new checked readings 2 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period.
Economy & productivity	40.5	40.5	flat
Money & markets	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Policy & safety	building (1 checked)	building (1 checked)	n/a	too few to score or compare
Defense & security	needs targets	needs targets	n/a	nothing to score or compare
Food & agriculture	55.9	55.9	flat	2 readings have only a year or month as their date; they use the middle of that period.
Other	building (1 checked)	building (1 checked)	n/a	too few to score or compare