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Mark OlsonPROJECT 2045
The floor
The floor is where ordinary people do ordinary work: driving a van, running a kiosk, farming, building, nursing. I track how fast AI and tech are changing work and life on the way to 2045, and what that means down here.
95 measured · 194 gaps · updated 2026-10-24
Latest moves
- 2026-10-22AIThe best model on Vectara's hallucination leaderboard had a 1.8% hallucination rate on summaries in October 2026 (an Ant Group model, finix S1 32B).github.com →
- 2026-10-14SPACEOrbital launch attempts worldwide in 2026 so far (through Oct 14, 2026).planet4589.org →
- 2026-09WORKUS jobs across all nonfarm industries.data.bls.gov →
- 2026-09ROBOTSChange in US manufacturing output from August to September 2026, per the Fed G.17 industrial production release.federalreserve.gov →
- 2026ENERGYLargest training compute among Epoch notable models published in 2026: 9.4e+26 FLOP.epoch.ai →
- 2024HEALTHUS health spending as a share of GDPcms.gov →
Six axes
AI20 measured · 35 gapsLatest: Lowest hallucination rate on the Vectara leaderboard 1.8 percent of summaries with hallucinations, as of 2026-10-22 github.com →Nearest forecast: AI agents working in parallel on one task 1,900,000,000 agents, target 2027 youtube.com →
ROBOTS13 measured · 38 gapsLatest: US manufacturing output, monthly change 0.3 percent (monthly change), as of 2026-09 federalreserve.gov →Nearest forecast: On-demand delivery time 15 minutes, target 2027 youtube.com →
ENERGY17 measured · 43 gapsLatest: Largest notable AI model training compute, by publication year 940,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 FLOP, as of 2026 epoch.ai →Nearest forecast: AI data center power capacity / demand 10 GW, target 2027 youtube.com →
HEALTH6 measured · 17 gapsLatest: US health spending as a share of GDP 18 percent of GDP, as of 2024 cms.gov →Nearest forecast: Autologous lab-grown kidney clinical trial start 2028 year, target 2028
SPACE9 measured · 33 gapsLatest: Orbital launch attempts worldwide 244 orbital launch attempts, as of 2026-10-14 planet4589.org →Nearest forecast: Launch cost reduction from reusability 99 %, target 2027 youtube.com →
WORK30 measured · 28 gapsLatest: US jobs by industry 159,044 thousand employees (seasonally adjusted), as of 2026-09 data.bls.gov →Nearest forecast: Share of accountants replaceable by agents 80 %, target 2027 youtube.com →
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